Estimation of Time Trends of Incidence of Prostate Cancer – an Indian Scenario

Abstract

<b>Background:</b> With increase in life expectancy, adoption of newer lifestyles and screening using prostatespecific antigen (PSA), the incidence of prostate cancer is on rise. Globally prostate cancer is the second mostfrequently diagnosed cancer and sixth leading cause of cancer death in men. The present communication makesan attempt to analyze the time trends in incidence for different age groups of the Indian population reportedin different Indian registries using relative difference and regression approaches. Materials and <br/><b>Methods</b>: Thedata published in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for various Indian registries for different periods and/orpublications by the individual registries served as the source materials. Trends were estimated by computing themean annual percentage change (MAPC) in the incidence rates using the relative difference between two timeperiods (latest and oldest) and also by estimation of annual percentage change (EAPC) by the Poisson regressionmodel. <br/><b>Results</b>: Age adjusted incidence rates (AAR) of prostate cancer for the period 2005-2008 ranged from 0.8(Manipur state excluding Imphal west) to 10.9 (Delhi) per 105 person-years. Age specific incidence rates (ASIR)increased in all PBCRs especially after 55 years showing a peak incidence at +65 years clearly indicating thatprostate cancer is a cancer of the elderly. MAPC in crude incidence rate(CR) ranged from 0.14 (Ahmedabad)to 8.6 (Chennai) . Chennai also recorded the highest MAPC of 5.66 in ASIR in the age group of 65+. Estimatedannual percentage change (EAPC) in the AAR ranged from 0.8 to 5.8 among the three registries. Increase intrend was seen in the 5-64 year age group cohort in many registries and in the 35-44 age group in Metropolitancities such as Delhi and Mumbai. <br/><b>Conclusions</b>: Several Indian registries have revealed an increasing trend inthe incidence of prostate cancer and the mean annual percentage change has ranged from 0.14-8.6.