A study of the earthquakes occurrence distribution in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses method (Case study: Zagros fault, Iran)

Abstract

Iran undergoes enormous financial and physical damages caused by the occurrence of multiple earthquakes and is among the countries with a very high possibility of earthquake hazard. For this purpose using methods with greater precision in order to control and reduce the damages caused by the earthquake is essential. One of the assessment methods is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA); which in this method we have used the assumption of constant risk of earthquake along the fault whereas given the lack of equal energy in various parts of the earth, this assumption is contrary to fact. In this study we have tried to display the errors of this method using numerical programming method (MATLAB) by performing a case study on Zagros fault in Iran. Results suggest that the distribution of earthquake probability is different for each point of Zagros fault. And that the probability of seismic risk is low in some parts of the fault and significantly high in others.