The Forecast of Economic Welfare and Food Security of Iran under Climate Changes*

Abstract

Food security and economic welfare strongly depend on agricultural production, the loss of this production can be a serious challenge for food security and economic welfare. Agricultural production is also influenced by environmental and climatic factors so that the variations of climatic parameters can trigger extensive fluctuations in agricultural production. This study classifies climate changes into four scenarios of normal climate change (scenario 1), climate change (scenario 2), climate variability (scenario 3), and concurrent climate change (scenario 4). Then, economic welfare and food security are studied in each scenario for a 20-year period. We use data on costs and production of three crops – barley, potato, and maize – as three major agronomic plants that influence food security of Iran and the technique of positive mathematical programming. The results reveal the severe loss of acreage, farmer income, and producer and consumer welfare surplus and the increase in crop prices under four scenarios. In all calculation sections, scenarios 4, 2, 3 and 1 had the greatest impact on the studied variables, respectively. In scenarios 1 to 4, average acreage is 372.76, 270.3, 374 and 270 thousand ha and farmers' net revenue is 24238.85, 19156.21, 24304.26 and 19143.11 billion IRR, respectively. The average price of the three studied crops under the four scenarios is 99.7, 125.65, 99.54 and 125.76 billion IRR, respectively. Also, in these scenarios, consumer welfare surplus will be 12286.8, 12072.91, 12277.87 and 12070.19 billion IRR and producer welfare surplus will be 13972.3, 13652.6, 13960.5 and 13648.8 billion IRR, respectively