Developing Flood Economic Loss Evaluation Model in Residential and Commercial Sectors Case Study: Darband and Golab Darreh Rivers

Abstract

Flood phenomenon is one of the catastrophic natural disasters which usually cause injuries and economic losses more than any weather phenomenon. Therefore evaluating flood economic losses is extremely important and it should be consider in socioeconomic development, spatial planning policies and flood control plans. Contrary to importance of this issue, available evaluating methods of flood economic losses are not comprehensive and there is not any consideration of environmental, economic and uncertainty approaches simultaneously. Comprehensive flood economic loss evaluating methods help to decision makers for choosing best strategies of flood control in structural and non-structural plans. In this research flood loss scale and distribution is evaluated based on economic and environmental approaches. According to importance and requirement of developing a sustainable master plan for evaluating flood economic losses especially in mega-cities a flood economic loss evaluating model is developed in Darband and Golab Darreh Rivers and Maghsoud Beyk Channel using HEC-FDA model. The results showed most economic losses by determining 8 hazardous points is occurred in residential sectors of Maghsoud Beyk Channel, also in this region total loss calculated 12,220,239 dollars, so the cost of flood control plan should be lower than this loss amount, for that could be having economic justification. In order to obtain acceptable accuracy in evaluating flood economic losses, hydro-logic and hydraulic uncertainties are evaluated based on the Monte-Carlo method.