A Direct Demand Model of Departure Time and Mode for Intercity Passenger Trips

Abstract

<span>Travel demand is well announced as a crucial component of transportation planning. This paper aims to <span>develop a direct demand model, denoting a more acceptable abstraction of reality, for intercity passengers in <span>daily work and leisure trips in Tehran province. The model utilizes combined estimation across the data <span>source, collected in 2011, of travelers originating from the city of Tehran and heading toward two destination <span>clusters: intra-province and inter-province. The paper sketches a way to predict simultaneous choice of <span>departure time and travel mode under the influence of zonal (origin, destination, and residence), individual <span>and household socio-demographic, and trip-related variables. The time frame for analysis of departure time <span>is [5-19] and available modes are auto, taxi, bus, and metro. Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Nested Logit <span>(NL) models as behavioral models are selected from discrete choice family to provide appropriate direct <span>demand structure. Besides, the paper discusses Independent Irrelative Alternative (IIA) assumption of the <span>models and demonstrates choice order of NL; Travelers choose departure time prior to mode at first level and <span>then decide on mode at second level. Finally, travel demand elasticity and marginal effect with respect to <span>travel time, age, and auto cost are also highlighted.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span>