Stochastic reliability evaluation of the stand-alone photovoltaic systems

Abstract

Move to the installation of the stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems for the remote and critical areas has been increased due to the technical advantages of them alongside the low investment cost. However, accurate reliability calculation of the stand-alone PV system is essential to verify its suitability for being a sustainable energy system. This paper proposes a new method for calculation of the stand-alone PV system's reliability without any assumption. In order to consider the uncertainty of the global solar irradiation on the output power of the system, stochastic modeling was hypothesized in this paper. Fast forward scenario reduction approach is used to reduce the number of the scenario so as to increase the execution time. Moreover, an effect of the ambient conditions such as temperature and humidity on the failure rate of the components, and the aging issue of the PV modules are taken into account to evaluate the reliability metrics precisely. The proposed reliability calculation has been implemented in the case study to assess its reliability metrics. The calculated results manifested that the optimal stand-alone PV system can be utilized as a reliable system; however, the ambient conditions would reduce its availability.