Modeling, Planning and Evaluating the Investment Risk of Multiple Energy Centers Based on the Estimation of Data

Abstract

In this paper, we proposed a financial evaluation method for energy centers with the ability to convert and manage the selection of the type of exhaust fuels. An energy center is an integrated system, for example, a power unit that convert or store multiple energy carriers. Given the flexibility of energy centers to change their output power (s), as well as the uncertainties in some parameters such as the price of energy carriers, inflation, consumption, etc., the value of its investment is uncertain and based on The Monte Carlo simulation is determined. By the Monte Carlo method and the Hull-White-Vasicek method, the price of energy carriers will be estimated in the coming days using data from previous years. This approach has been the ability to adapt flexibly to uncertain and volatile market prices. The estimated price error is shown using the above methods and real data. Then, the model of the proposed energy center is determined by the size of the risk and its profitability.