Long Run Analysis of Natural Gas and Electricity Export via System Dynamics

Abstract

Analyzing different scenarios for exporting natural gas and electricity is the main subject in this paper.<br /> The place of Iran as the owner of second largest reserves of natural gas in the world and exporting it to<br /> different countries increase the notability of this study. On the other hand, in the restructured power system,<br /> the role of natural gas is growing in the electricity generation. This paper analyzes exporting natural<br /> gas and electricity via three scenarios, including 1) direct transfer of natural gas at real time and forward<br /> prices, 2) exporting the electricity, considering fuel payment and without fuel cost and 3) conversion of<br /> natural gas into electricity and transferring via the power market. Markove Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)<br /> is applied for modelling the natural gas price during the studied time horizon. In this regard, the scenarios<br /> are analyzed via system dynamics. Published data by energy information administration (EIA) about<br /> natural gas price, the costs of generation by different technologies and plans for exporting the natural gas<br /> and electricity are used in this study. The results show that exporting the natural gas or the electricity in<br /> suitable forward price are the most profitable scenarios. Transferring the natural gas at real time price is<br /> profitable, while exporting the electricity at the real time price of power market can not meet the economic<br /> goals, even by expanding the renewable resources.