Statistical Downscaling HadCM3 Model for Detection and Perdiction of Seasonal Climatic Variations (Case Study: Khabr Rangeland, Kerman, Iran)

Abstract

Rangelands are one of the most vulnerable parts concerning the climate<br />changes‟ impacts. These impacts are even stronger in the arid and semi-arid areas where<br />rangeland ecosystems are in critical conditions. Therefore, it is crucial to figure out the<br />actual dynamics of climate variations on the rangelands. The aim of this research was to<br />determine climate changes in Khabr rangeland, Kerman, Iran. So, four meteorological data<br />sets of HadCM3 model including minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation and<br />radiation rates were used to assess climate changes in the region. In this regard, climate<br />changes during 2011-2039 were assessed by downscaling HadCM3 data using LARS-WG<br />model under three scenarios of B1, A2 and A1B. The results have showed that the rainfall<br />rates of spring and summer would have declining trends under all three scenarios.<br />Minimum and maximum temperature rates would increase in all seasons, and just radiation<br />one showed a decreasing trend for winter. Based on A1B scenario, minimum and<br />maximum temperature rates had the highest increasing trend. Radiation and precipitation<br />had the highest increasing and declining trends in the A2 scenario, respectively. Moreover,<br />the increase in maximum and minimum temperature rates was averagely greater than the<br />past and consequently despite the increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperature<br />rates, the increase in the mean temperature rate during this period would be expected.<br />According to the results, Khabr rangeland‟s climatic conditions will be significantly<br />different in the next 30 years and long-term and strategic planning is necessary in<br />consistent with the management policies with these conditions.