Adaptation of global climate change projections for local level application: Case study, special forest ecosystem, Astara

Abstract

During recent years, a series of climate projections provided for surface temperature increase and precipitation changes over the next century in various time slices. National institutes are using downscaling projections for more precise results. In this research study, various climate change projections in global, continental, regional and local scales have been examined in special forest ecosystem in Astara. To study past climate conditions, main climatic factors namely temperature and precipitation as well as relative humidity and wind were considered. Downscaling climate projections in national and local scales have some agreement and disagreement with available global, continental and regional projections. According to all reports in different scales temperature of Astara region, in last half century has been increased. In the longer future time period, the study area will face with higher values of increasing temperature. According to the scenario A1B (2090-2099) in the winter, western part of Hyrcanian forest including Astara will experience 10% increment of precipitation and in the summer 20% decrement of precipitation. This is in agreement with Central Asia sub-region projection and in disagreement with West Asia sub-region projection. For the future projection of precipitation in Astara area, there are no significant differences between global, Central Asia sub-region, Middle East, national and local downscaling projections.