Mortality Characteristic and Prediction of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013

Abstract

<b>Background:</b> To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatmentof nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and <br/><b>Methods</b>: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma inChina from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of thestandardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used tostudy the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpointregression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. <br/><b>Results</b>: In China, thestandardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peakvalues of 1.45 /105 at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higherthan females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rateincreased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China.<br/><b>Conclusions</b>: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional diseasecontrol for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targetsfor prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of NasopharyngealCarcinoma will decrease in the next five years.