Projection of Cancer Incident Cases for India -Till 2026

Abstract

Projection of cancer incidence is essential for planning cancer control actions, health care and allocationof resources. Here we project the cancer burden at the National and State level to understand the magnitudeof cancer problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. The age, sex andsite-wise cancer incidence data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the reportof National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer incidence rates were obtained by taking weighted averages of theseseventeen registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled incidence rates were assumedto represent the country’s incidence rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to therisk of development of cancer in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar Generalof India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2001 to 2026. Population forecastswere combined with the pooled incidence rates to estimate the projected number of cancer cases by age, sexand site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried outfor the various leading sites as well as for ‘all sites’ of cancer. In India, in 2011, nearly 1,193,000 new cancercases were estimated; a higher load among females (603,500) than males (589,800) was noted. It is estimatedthat the total number of new cases in males will increased from 0.589 million in 2011 to 0.934 million by theyear 2026. In females the new cases of cancer increased from 0.603 to 0.935 million. Three top most occurringcancers namely those of tobacco related cancers in both sexes, breast and cervical cancers in women accountfor over 50 to 60 percent of all cancers. When adjustments for increasing tobacco habits and increasing trendsin many cancers are made, the estimates may further increase. The leading sites of cancers in males are lung,oesophagus, larynx, mouth, tongue and in females breast and cervix uteri. The main factors contributing to highburden of cancer over the years are increase in the population size as well as increase in proportion of elderlypopulation, urbanization, and globalization. The cancer incidence results show an urgent need for strengtheningand augmenting the existing diagnostic/tr eatment facilities, which are inadequate even to tackle the present load.