Comparison of Life-Time Death Probability due to Malignant Tumors in Different Regions of China Based on Chinese Surveillance Sites

Abstract

Objective: To estimate and comparably analyze the life-time death probability (LDP) caused by malignant tumors<br />in different regions in 2004 and 2014. Methods: LDP was calculated by a probability additive formula and based on an<br />abridged life table. Data on age-specific mortality was obtained from the National Cause-of- Death Surveillance Dataset<br />in 2014 using surveillance sites in China and data on age-specific mortality was collected from the third retrospective<br />investigation of death cause in China in 2004. Results: LDP caused by malignant tumors, lung cancer, gastric cancer,<br />liver cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal, and anal cancer were 19.2%, 5.6%, 2.8%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 1.3%, respectively. In<br />addition, we calculated LDP caused by malignant tumors in three different regions of China. LDP caused by malignant<br />tumors were 21.2%, 6.1%, 3.1%, 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.5% in the eastern region, were 18.3%, 5.5%, 2.7%, 3.0%, 1.5%,<br />and 1.1% in the central region, and were 16.7%, 4.6%, 2.3%, 2.8%, 1.6%, and 1.2% in the western region, respectively.<br />Additionally, LDP caused by malignant tumors in 2004 and 2015 were compared. We found that LDPs caused by<br />malignant tumors, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer have increased in the past decade, while LDPs caused by gastric<br />cancer, liver cancer, and esophageal cancer have experienced a decreasing trend. Conclusions: Malignant tumors<br />were still the main cause of death in one's life time, giving rise to LDP. LDP caused by malignant tumours has two<br />divisions. First, traditional upper digestive system cancers related to long-term chronic infection, such as esophageal<br />cancer, gastric cancer, and liver cancer, which has shown a significant downward trend. Second, lung and colorectal<br />cancers related to the environmental factors and lifestyle, which are on the rise.