Prediction of Renewable Energy Production Using Grey Systems Theory

Abstract

Due to the reduction of renewable energy resources such as fossil fuels, the energy crisis is one of the most critical issues in today's world. The application of these resources brings about many environmentalpollutionsthatleadtoglobalwarming. Therefore,variouscountrieshaveattemptedto reducepotentialdamageanduserenewableenergiesbytheintroductionandpromotionofrenewable energies as an essential strategy to reduce CO2 emissions and to find alternatives to fossil energy in the transportation and electricity generation sectors. This study attempts to predict the production process of renewable energies in Iran by 2025 and study the characteristics of this energy and its usage in the world and Iran. Since there are very few data in this field, four grey prediction models are used including GM(1,1), DGM(2,1), Grey Verhulst and FGM(1,1) models. According to the threeindicesoftheerrorvaluesofMSE,RMSE,andMAPE,allthepredictionsdonebythemethods aboveareamongthebestpredictionmethods. Byexaminingtheresultsachieved,FGM(1,1)method was the best model concerning its less error than other models and has estimated 16740.45 MW for renewable energy production in 2025.