تعیین ضریب عملکرد پروژه در مدیریت ارزش کسب شده با استفاده از مدیریت ریسک به منظور تخمین نتایج پایانی کار پیمانکاران

Abstract

One of the common questions in all projects, is "How much would be the final cost of the project?" or "How much would be the completion duration of the project?". Earned Value Management presents a method for estimation of these results. In general methods and formula of Earned Value Management, future trend of project, are anticipated completely based on its previous trend, and changes in environmental conditions or other effective elements in future performance of the project are neglected. But risk management looks a future horizon in project's future and explores unknown future to identify potential threats and opportunities and control their occurrence results on project performance. In this paper, using risk management process and challenging effective aspects & elements on project future performance in different visions, a risk coefficient in accordance with current coefficient of "EVMS", is presented for better estimate of final results of projects. The goal of this method is concentration of management's attention on reaching project goals, by using interaction of these two methods in determining exact performance coefficient of project future. Anticipating exact results of project is attainable by this coefficient.