Water Resources Management of Hirmand River Basin for Agricultural Productions Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming

Abstract

In this study, the water content that is allocated for agricultural productions was<br />analyzed using stochastic dynamic programming. The technical coefficients used in the<br />study referred to the agricultural years, 2013-2014. They were obtained through the use<br />of simple random sampling of 250 farmers in the region for crops like wheat, barley,<br />melon, watermelon, and ruby grapes under the scenarios of drought and normal and<br />water that is required in the most sensitive growth stages. Production function and profit<br />function were obtained from the yield-water-product function of crops using Eviews<br />software. Expected net profit of the system and optimal allocation of water were also<br />calculated based on the GAMS economic analysis software. Results of the model<br />indicates a reduction in wheat, barley, melon and watermelon production area under<br />cultivation while at the same time an increase in ruby grapes cultivation areas under<br />optimal conditions. The results showed that the cultivation of the ruby grape was the<br />best product with the highest expected profit in normal and drought conditions. In<br />general, when the expected value of net profit is positive, managers would act<br />optimistically and they would promise the optimal level of water allocated to the<br />farmers.