Climate Change Impacts on Flood Events and Its Consequences on Human in Deba River

Abstract

The scientific community agrees that climate change is one of the greatest challenges that our<br />society will have to face this century. Indeed, the fourth report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate<br />Change (IPPC) confirms the certitude of this phenomenon and its impacts, which can range from droughts to<br />floods, health problems and food shortages. The principal objective of this paper is to assess the impact of<br />climate change on flood events and its consequences on human. This point is necessary to define and evaluate different adaptation options. Even taking into account the medium greenhouse emission scenario, according to the results, it is expected that extreme precipitation will increase during the twenty century, although there is an uncertainty in the percentage due to the climatic models. It is expected an increase in peak discharge between 14±9 and 15±8 for 3 models and for the period 2001-2040 with a return period exceeding 40 years. For the period 2041-2080 there is more uncertainty, it is expected an increase between 12±8 and 19±10 for 2 models. According to the results, changes in flood event are expected with its associated uncertainty and new flood zones are detected with greater hazard to people.