Using Weibull probability distribution to calibrate prevailing wind applying in oil spill simulation

Abstract

In the Persian Gulf, the major source of oil pollution is related to the transportation of tankers, offshore production and discharges by coastal refineries. The water dynamical field has been obtained using a new hydrodynamic model. Local wind is recognized as the principal driving force combining to the water dynamic field to determine oil drift on the sea surface. The Weibull probability distribution is considered to adjust the prevailing wind obtaining by data from measurements and compared with other data, displaying fairly good conformity. To model the advection and dispersion in the Persian Gulf which is a shallow water area, random walk technique has been used. Comparison of the actual and simulated oil spill trajectory based on real wind field was found acceptable in the Iranian waters.