A Simulation Study on Impact of Climate Factors on Production and Requirements of Rice in Bangladesh

Abstract

Md. AbuBakr Siddique1*, Jun Furuya2, Shinataro Kobayashi2 ,M Abdus Salam1 1-Agricultural Economics Division, BRRI, Bangladesh 2-Development Research Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences *Corresponding author Email: abs_63@yahoo.com Received: 20 June 2013 Accepted:12 November 2013 Abstract Bangladesh is a disaster prone developing country, where people's staple food is rice. Numerous natural calamities visits here round the year, and impeded the crusade of development. This study was designed to evaluate the impact of climate change on supply and demand, as well as predict the future scenario of rice in Bangladesh. The findings of the study revealed that although, production of local varieties in aus, aman and boro season is decreasing owing to lower yield and shrinking of planted area aggregated production of rice is increasing due to higher production of modern varieties. As the total rice production increases quantity of imports is decreased in one hand and on the other hand, the bulk of stock is increased gradually. Higher level of per capita income growth rate leads to the diversification of consumers' food habit. Along with negative income elasticity of demand, decreased per capita consumption of rice including other food items in dietary system. However, total demand of rice will increase eventually as the population increasing. The enumerated results of simulation based on past trend and performance of data was very precise and reliable, and could be useful for future policy implications.