Environmental Management of Oil Pipelines Risks in the Wetland Areas by Delphi and MCDM Techniques: Case of Shadegan International Wetland, Iran

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the risk factors of pipelines and prioritize their severity in order to prevent their effects in Shadegan International wetland, Iran. Due to the participatory nature of the managerial affairs, the study employs an integrated approach that combines Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi Method. Also, Likret Scale has been applied to quantify the qualitative (verbal) data, thus reducing the uncertainty of oil pipelines' risk evaluation. In order to evaluate potential risk factors, Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method has been applied. According to the study results, in terms of the likelihood of environmental impacts on the main considered criteria of natural and man-made environments, the former's effect is a priority risk, weighing 0.670 and primarily important. On the other hand, environmental hazards caused by oil pipes of water quality in Shadegan wetland has been ranked first, with a relative weight of 0.389 to contain the highest level of risk. The risk degree for diversity and density of benthos is 12.6 and 6.3for fish, both higher than other parameters of water systems in Shadegan wetland. Considering the recognized factors that lead to probable risks of pipelines along with their most notable outcomes, the paper suggests environmental management plans on how to control and reduce the potential impacts, with an emphasis on elimination of the most likely causes.