Spatial Factors Related to Traffic Crashes on Pedestrians in All Districts of Tehran

Abstract

Background: A great proportion of deaths due to traffic crashes occur for pedestrians, both in developing and developed countries. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine the spatial factors related to the frequency of traffic crashes on pedestrians in districts of Tehran city. Methods: This was a cross‑sectional study. All traffic crashes on pedestrians during 2013–2015 were included in this study. The data were extracted from different sources such as traffic police main office, Tehran municipal office, and Iran statistics center. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were used to analyze the role of environment and district on frequency of traffic crashes. Moreover, the likelihood‑ratio test has been used for comparison between models, while assessment of goodness‑of‑fit has been reported using R2, Akaike information criteria, and Bayesian information criteria. Results: Of 12,090 crashes, 11,895 (98.4%) had led to injuries, while 195 (1.6%) had led to deaths. The frequency of crashes varied substantially in different districts of Tehran. The incidence of injuries did not show any particular pattern, whereas the pattern of incidence of deaths was lower in central districts in comparison to higher incidence in marginal districts (e.g., north, south, west, and east of Tehran). The results of the final model showed a statistically significant association among various variables such as demographics, web of roads, rate of traveling, and land use with the outcome as number of crashes in geographic units. Conclusions: Frequency distribution of traffic crashes leading to injury and/or death is completely different in various districts of Tehran. Demographic as well as spatial characteristics also play an important role in determining this distribution. Regional planning, appropriate traffic management, control measures on spatial risk factors, and educational programs could substantially improve the safety of pedestrians in Tehran.