Modeling and simulation of COVID-19 disease dynamics via Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative

Abstract

The motive of this paper is to investigate the SEIQRD model of the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia with the help of a fractional modeling approach. The model is described by the nonlinear system of six fractional order differential equations (DE) incorporating the Caputo-Fabrizio Fractional derivative (CFFD) operator. The existence and uniqueness of the model are proved by applying the well-known Banach contraction theorem. The reproduction number ($R_0$) is calculated, and its sensitivity analysis is conducted concerning each parameter of the model for the prediction and persistence of the infection. Moreover, the numerical simulation for various fractional orders is performed using the Adams-Bashforth technique to analyze the transmission behavior of disease and to get the approximated solutions. At last, we represent our numerical simulation graphically to illustrate our analytical findings.