Modeling Volatility Spillovers in Iran Capital Market

Abstract

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the dollar exchange rate return, gold coin return and crude oil return to stock index return. Monthly returns in the 144 observations (2005 - 2017) are analyzed by constant conditional correlation, dynamic conditional correlation, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. So this paper presents interdependences in conditional volatilities across returns in each market. The purpose of this study is to identifying volatility spillover on the capital market in order to managing financial volatility, in addition to policy making and risk management. The evidence of this study confirms the asymmetric volatility spillovers of the dollar exchange return and also conditional shocks from gold coin and crude oil returns to the stock index that ignoring the asymmetries effects in in the model will exaggerate the returns and shocks spillover. In addition to these results, dynamic model gives the statistically significant estimates for all returns with most impact shocks from dollar exchange return and gold coin returns.<br />