Modeling of Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Resources: The Application of Dynamic Systems Approach

Abstract

The purpose of the present study was the simulation of climate change effects on groundwater resources in Iran by using the dynamic systems approach. The approach was performed through system dynamics modeling process including problem explanation, system description, model development, model testing, and the use of the model for policy analysis. The impact of the application of various exogenous scenarios including drought scenarios, management of water supply and population growth was assessed and the behavior of variables of water resources volume and per capita volume of renewable water of the Southern Khorasan province was simulated by Vensim software for the 2013-2041 period. Data were collected by referring to relevant organizations like South Khorasan Regional Water Organization, South Khorasan Agricultural Organization, and Statistical Center of Iran and the input data of the model were fed into the model in an Excel worksheet. The results showed that the water resource exploitation management scenario had a significant positive effect on the balance of aquifers of South Khorasan Province so that the balance of the province aquifers in the scenario of controlling water resources exploitation has been significantly different from the scenario of the lack of control of different drought in all the studied years. In addition, the results of examination of the province's renewable water showed that droughts have had a negative impact on the volume of renewable water of the province and droughts together with population growth have reduced the province per capita renewable water.