Modeling of Influential Predictors of Gastric Cancer Incidence Rates in Golestan Province, North Iran

Abstract

Golestan province has a reputation for relatively high incidence rates of gastric cancer in Iran. Along withdietary, lifestyle and environmental influential factors, soil selenium and high levels of pesticide used may exertinfluence in this region. The present study was designed for modeling the influential predictors on incidence ofgastric cancer in Golestan. All registered cases of gastric cancer from March 2009 to March 2010 (49 femalesand 107 males) were investigated. Data were gathered by both check list and researcher made questionnaire(demographic, clinical and lifestyle characteristics) and analysed using logistic regression. Mean (±SD) ageat diagnosis was 62.9±13.8 years. CIR and ASR of gastric cancer showed 9.16 and 13.9 per 100,000 people,respectively. Based on univariate logistic regression, a history of smoking (OR= 2.076), unwashed hands afterdefecation (OR= 2.612), history of cancer in relatives (OR= 2.473), history of gastric cancer in first-degreerelatives (OR= 2.278), numbers of gastric cancers in first-degree relatives (OR= 2.078), history of X-ray and dyeexposure (OR= 2.395), history of CT scan encounter (OR= 2.915), improper food habits (OR= 3.320), specificeating behavior (OR= 0.740), consumption of probable high risk foods (OR= 2.942), charred flesh (OR= 1.945),and animal fat (OR= 2.716) were confirmed as a risk factors. Changes in lifestyle may be expected to increasegastric cancer incidence dramatically in the near future. Therefore, appropriate educational interventions shouldbe designed and implemented by competent authorities