Mathematical Models for Human Cancer Incidence Rates - Application to Results from Europe, including North Cyprus

Abstract

The overall cancer incidence rate declines at very old age. Possible causes of this decline include the effects ofcross-sectional data that transform cohort dynamics into age patterns, population heterogeneity that selectsindividuals susceptible to cancer, a decline in some carcinogenic exposure in older individuals, underdiagnosis,and the effects of individual aging that slow down major physiological processes in an organism. Here severalmathematical models contributing to the explanation of this phenomenon are discussed with extension of theStrehler and Mildvan model of aging and mortality to the analysis of data on cancer incidence at old age (datasource: International Agency for Research on Cancer). The model can help explain the observed time trendsand age patterns of cancer incidence rates.