Calculation of the fuzzy reliability in Neishabour train disaster; a case study

Abstract

Fuzzy reliability is often used in analyzing the reliability in the large industrial systems. In this paper, a relatively new method is presented to analyze Neishabour (also called Nishapur, a city in Iran) train disaster. In this regards, by using the certain and uncertain propositions, unreliability circuit of the system is depicted .Due to the inability to provide exact values for the unreliability of each subsystem, regarding the opinion of experts, fuzzy logic is applied and triangular and Gaussian membership functions are attributed depending to the type of each subsystem and the fuzzy unreliability value of the system is calculated. Finally, by defuzzification and comparing the obtained value with the classification table of linguistic variables, unreliability of the system is identified.