Stochastic Decision Making in Manufacturing Environments

Abstract

Decision making plays an important role in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, statistics and many other fields. In each field, decision making consists of identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues that define the decision. In any field, the nature of the decisions is affected by environmental characteristics. In this paper, we are considered the production planning problem in a stochastic and complex environment, i.e. the environment of electronic equipment production, where planning is done with variable results and changeable requests. In this complicated environment we are encountered with joint replenishment, variable yields and exchanging demands and many other complex variables related to inventory management and control systems that have complicated and unpredictable behavior and could not be simply modelled. We are trying to modelling this environment as a stochastic problem. The aim of mathematical model is managing and controlling inventories in such a complex production environment. We also try to solve this proposed stochastic problem by estimation procedures. The planning problem is devised as a gain-maximizing stochastic program. Also we use Arena and Matlab softwares to predict the behavior of production system in various situations. The results of these simulations are mentioned in the paper.