A Monte Carlo simulation technique for assessment of earthquake-induced displacement of slopes

Abstract

The dynamic response of slopes against earthquake is commonly characterized by the earthquake-induced displacement of slope (EIDS). The EIDS value is a function of several variables such as the material properties, slope geometry, and earthquake acceleration. This work is aimed at the prediction of EIDS using the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). Hence, the parameters height, unit specific weight, cohesion, friction angle, vibration duration, and maximum horizontal acceleration are used to predict the EIDS values. To do this, a multiple non-linear regression relationship is first derived between EIDS and the independent variables. Then MCSM is performed based on the developed regression equation. The results obtained demonstrate that the stochastic approach used is able to successfully reproduce the EIDS values and calculate the confidence intervals. The average of the measured and simulated values for EIDS was 4.34 cm and 4.48 cm, respectively. Eventually, the results of a performed correlation sensitivity analysis revealed that the maximum horizontal acceleration had the greatest impact on EIDS.