Impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events in arid (Bandar Abbas) and semi-arid (Shahrekord) stations in Iran

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to project extreme precipitation events in an arid and a semiarid station. In order to project climate change based on general circulation models (GCMs), we have applied LARS-WG[1] downscaling tool. This stochastic weather generator down-scaled the climate of two synoptic stations using HADCM3 model and A2 emission scenario for 2040. We extracted extreme precipitation events, as daily 90^th and 10^th percentile for rainy days (considered if daily precipitation was greater than 1 mm), for based and projected data. The research outcomes showed an increase both in 90^th percentile by 13 mm and in 10^thpercentile by 0.2 mm in arid station, Bandar Abbas. In the semiarid station, Shahrekord, the 90^thpercentile precipitation increased by 6.1 mm and the 10^th percentile precipitation decreased by 3.4 mm. In total, for both stations, 90^th percentile precipitations showed a more stable trend than the 10^th percentile. <br /><br clear="all" /> <br /> <br />1. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator