A New Uncertain Modeling of Production Project Time and Cost Based on Atanassov Fuzzy Sets

Abstract

Uncertainty plays a major role in any project evaluation and management process. One of the trickiest parts of any production project work is its cost and time forecasting. Since in the initial phases of production projects uncertainty is at its highest level, a reliable method of project scheduling and cash flow generation is vital to help the managers reach successful implementation of the project. In the recent years, some scholars have tried to address uncertainty of projects in time and cost by using basic uncertainty modeling tools such as fuzzy sets theory. In this paper, a new approach is introduced to model project cash flow under uncertain environments using Atanassov fuzzy sets or intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs). The IFSs are presented to calculate project scheduling and cash flow generation. This modern approach enhances the ability of managers to use their intuition and lack of knowledge in their decision-makings. Moreover, unlike the recent studies in this area, this model uses a more sophisticated tool of uncertain modeling which is highly practical in real production project environments. Furthermore, a new effective IFS-ranking method is introduced. The methodology is exemplified by estimating the working capital requirements in an activity network. The proposed model could be useful for both project proposal evaluation during feasibility studies and for performing earned value analysis for project monitoring and control.